Case file · not a court · not the police
Charlie Kirk assassination
Utah Valley University, 10 Sep 2025, 12:23:30 MDT. The State says Tyler Robinson was a lone rooftop shooter. That is one hypothesis. This site holds the evidence so every hypothesis – official and not – can be tested.
Judge Tony Graf hears probable-cause arguments 1 Sep 2026. Not a trial and not a verdict. Docket entry
State theory
Robinson was the lone rooftop shooter
Contested Primary counter-theoryRobinson is a patsy and did not fire the shot
ContestedCharging documents are the state's story. Owens' 99.9% is hers. We grade the items and keep a list of what is still unknown. This page does not pick a shooter. Method · Claim matrix · UVU scene map
Open questions
All 21- Bagley bodycam gap on Losee Open Bagley: camera died on the roof; about 27 minutes of footage that day; he did not return once it charged. Native file, stop time, and other cameras for those minutes are not here.
- Native autopsy report Open Hull at prelim: homicide by gunshot wound to the neck; fragments recovered. Defense objected to showing the report. Pathologist unnamed in the copy we hold. Charging paper in Sep 2025 said the examiner's report was still pending.
- Keyboard note, future tense vs past tense Open Information: 'I had the opportunity to take out Charlie Kirk and I'm going to take it.' CNN/hearing recap: 'and I took it.' Same object, two published wordings. Native photo not here.
- Range from Losee roof to the tent Open Information: UVU officer judged the roof about 160 yards from Kirk. Affidavit / Wikipedia recap: about 430 feet (142 yards / 130 m). Same roof, two distances.
- ATF Dremel and home-casing reports Open Court heard that the apartment Dremel made the engravings and that home casings had been fired by the woods rifle. Native ATF reports are not archived here.
- What exactly does the DNA say, in numbers? Open Public language is "matched" and "very likely." Need stats, mixture ratios, which loci, which lab, when Twiggs' sample entered.
- What is the chain of custody on video and the gun? Open Defense: summaries not originals; ATF CoC incomplete. State: this is probable cause, not full discovery.
- Which friends got the Discord confession? Open State memo: admissions to "several friends" plus Twiggs. Patel: 20+ users in the Discord group would be looked at. Public file has recap quotes, not the export or the names.
- Owens Egyptian-flight spreadsheet vs ADS-B Open Owens: two Egyptian military aircraft (public discussion of tails SU-BTT / SU-BND) overlapped Erika ~73 times and were the key to the homicide. Open-source critics: a large share of those plotted positions do not match FlightRadar24 / ADS-B.
- Holster vs holster-with-gun Open Two officer descriptions. Native reports are not public. Was there a pistol on the lawn, an empty holster, or a paperwork collision?
- Limp, then no limp, on the roof Open Hull: 11:50 figure walked with a limp not seen that morning. Affidavit reporting: limp gone once on the roof. Press: limp consistent with a rifle in the pants.
- Native photo of the keyboard note Open Twiggs says he photographed the note and put it back. Court saw a photo. We do not have the image, EXIF, or the paper.
- Who had Losee roof overwatch? Open Harpole says the chief promised coverage and nobody was there. Bagley: six UVU officers, no drones. Radio in the first minutes named the library and CS building before this roof.
- When was DNA put on the rooftop screwdriver? Open Bakker: mixture with degradation; very strong support for Robinson and Twiggs. Defense: DNA does not say when. State memo: used to assemble the rifle on the pad.
- Did the recovered rifle fire the fatal round? Open ATF inconclusive on the autopsy jacket fragment. Open physical link.
- Is the rooftop figure Tyler Robinson? Open The identification question. State: yes, four times that day, including the pad. Owens: no, or not on campus. Public has narrated video, not a hashed native export.
- Do native phone and Discord extracts exist in public? Open The confession narrative is quotations. Fabrication claims cannot be killed or confirmed without the devices.
- Midnight officer stop, native note Open Hull: an officer noted a plate after a 12:30 a.m. contact. We do not have the CAD, bodycam, or the note. That plate is a major ID link if it exists as written.
- How dirty was the first 33 hours? Partial Wrong "in custody" tweet, two non-shooter arrests (one later CSAM/obstruction), facial-recognition miss, reconstruction team delayed a day.
- Why facial recognition failed on the CCTV Partial 11 Sep: officials had 'good video' and were running facial recognition. Same day the FBI said it failed and released stills instead. Parents then did the ID.
Claims under test
Matrix- Professional hit / false flag / not a bullet Contested Alternate mechanism Catch-all for Stone's 'nation state or rogue government,' RT gesture theories, blood-bag, Kirk-faked-his-death. Mic-bomb is now its own record. Logged so they can be killed with anatomy and hospital records instead of vibes.
- Robinson was the lone rooftop shooter Contested Official case The State of Utah's theory. Video ID, rifle, DNA, texts, Discord, family surrender. Bindover not yet ruled. This is a hypothesis with a lot of official weight – still a hypothesis until a fact-finder says otherwise.
- Bomb dogs were kept away Contested Alternate mechanism Owens Ep 351: K9s were kept off the courtyard so a rigged mic would not be found. No public ops plan or K9 log is in this file.
- FBI revived comparative bullet-lead analysis Contested Official case Owens: because ATF could not tool-mark the fragment, FBI is running compositional bullet-lead analysis, a method the bureau dropped in 2005. No filing in this archive says CBLA was used on this round.
- Death text: they are going to kill me Contested Motive Owens: the night before the shooting, Kirk texted Andrew Kolvet and Dan Flood that 'they' were going to kill him, and that 'they' was not the trans lobby. Native message is not in this file.
- Pierre Falcone as mastermind Contested Foreign state Owens: French arms-broker Pierre Falcone sits behind TPUSA money and the killing, sometimes with France and Israel 'with full confidence.' No public operational evidence. Falcone has not answered in the coverage we hold.
- Frangible or exploding bullet Contested Alternate mechanism Online / Owens overlay: the wound looks too destructive for a conventional .30-06, so the round was frangible or explosive. ATF could not tool-mark the jacket fragment to the rifle. That is common with deformed fragments, not a second mechanism.
- Fort Huachuca meeting the day before Contested TPUSA / insider Owens Ep 282 guest Mitch Snow: he saw Erika Kirk and Brian Harpole at Fort Huachuca, Arizona, around 9 Sep 2025. Harpole sued, saying he has never been to that base and travel records put him in Dallas.
- Kolvet: it was supposed to be you Contested TPUSA / insider Owens: after Kirk's death, Kolvet told her on a private call that 'it was supposed to be you.' She later read that as a threat or a slip. Kolvet has not confirmed that wording in the sources we hold.
- Exploding Røde microphone / shaped charge Contested Alternate mechanism Owens (eps 350–351) and John Bray: the wireless pack on Kirk's shirt was rigged and exploded. Against: Hull's hearing summary of a gunshot-to-neck autopsy, a jacket fragment, and close witnesses describing a neck wound with massive bleeding.
- St. Michael necklace as explosive residue Contested Alternate mechanism Owens Ep 351: federal interest in Kirk's St. Michael pendant is explained if the pendant held explosive residue from a rigged mic. No residue lab is in this file.
- Bill Ackman ran a June 2025 intervention that led to the killing Contested Foreign state Owens: a June influencer meeting was an "intervention" in which Ackman threatened and blackmailed Kirk over Israel. Ackman and others present denied it. No public link from that meeting to 10 Sep.
- Egyptian military flights tracked Erika and were at Provo on 10 Sep Contested Foreign state Owens: ~70 flight overlaps with Erika's travel since 2022; two Egyptian military aircraft at Provo Airport the day of the shooting, one powered on before and after the shot.
- Shot created a great risk of death to others Contested Official case The sole alleged death-penalty aggravator in the Information. State: four rounds into a 3,000-person courtyard. Defense 11 Aug 2026: one shot, above the crowd, intended target hit, no threats to others.
- Kirk thought he was a time traveler and was marked as a child Contested Patsy / wrong shooter Jan 2026 Owens: Kirk "thought that he was a time traveler," may have had foreknowledge of his death, was surrounded by "agents" his whole life, "marked since he was a child." She also released alleged audio of Erika days after the death.
- Kirk was targeted for political expression Contested Motive State: victim-targeting enhancements. Charging quotes "I had enough of his hatred." Gray: Robinson had grown concerned about gay and trans rights. Defense: one statement plus a romantic partner is not a proven political motive; apartment searches found little else.
- Groyper / Nick Fuentes motive Contested Motive Some read an inscription as a Groyper nod because Groypers had heckled Kirk. Axios called it baseless. Fuentes said his people were being framed.
- France / French Foreign Legion ran the hit Contested Foreign state Owens cluster: TPUSA courting a French donor, then a jump to the French Foreign Legion, Brigitte Macron, and a sex-trafficking mash with Egypt and Israel. No public operational evidence.
- Israel / Mossad ordered the killing Contested Foreign state Online and commentator claim tying Kirk's Israel friction, donor loss, Epstein comments, and an Infowars-circulated "Israel will kill me" anecdote to a state hit. Netanyahu called it insane. No public evidence of Israeli operational involvement.
- Robinson is a patsy and did not fire the shot Contested Patsy / wrong shooter Owens' primary counter-theory. She has said 99.9% certainty he did not shoot from a rooftop alone, and at times that he was not on campus. Defense has not publicly adopted the campus-absence claim.
- Kirk's security team was in on it Contested TPUSA / insider Owens has pointed at Kirk's own security as a possible inside group. Harpole's public account is the opposite: he says he asked for roof coverage and did not get it.
- TPUSA money and security failures explain the death Contested TPUSA / insider Owens cluster: ghost paychecks, ~$8.5M discrepancy, security gaps (open roof, no magnets, thin staffing). Security failures can be real and still not be homicide-by-insider.
- Roommate texts were written by federal agents Contested Fabricated digital evidence Owens: the published Robinson–Twiggs messages are "weird fed messages concocted out of thin air." She has claimed leaks proving this. Native phone extracts are not in the public file.
- Transgender ideology was the motive Contested Motive Fed by the Kozak question timing, the roommate's transition, a bad early WSJ/ATF bulletin, and later White House language. Casing inscriptions do not mention trans identity.
- Second gunman because of the holster Inconclusive Professional hit / extra shooter An empty (or not) pistol holster in the grass plus an unfired round on another roof. Defense used both to show discarded leads. Neither is a second shooter until a weapon, a person, and a wound path show up.
- Cox's 'Discord messages' were not Discord Contradicted Fabricated digital evidence 12 Sep: Cox described roommate messages about a towel-wrapped rifle and engraved bullets as Discord. Discord: those were not on the platform; the roommate was recounting a note to a friend after the shooting.
- WSJ 'trans / antifa slogans' casing bulletin Contradicted Motive Early manhunt story, citing an unverified ATF bulletin, said casings were engraved with transgender and antifascist ideology. Actual inscriptions are memes. WSJ amended. White House later still used trans-ideological framing.
- Zinn was an accomplice who helped the shooter flee Contradicted Broader plot Zinn told agents he yelled to let the real suspect get away. Sheriff: no information he actually colluded with the shooter. Robinson texts (if authentic) treat him as a lucky distraction, not a partner.
Latest timeline
All 33 events- ~ Sep 10, 2025, 6:30 PM MDTChallenger returns after midnight
~12:30 a.m. 11 Sep. Hull: Robinson's car stopped, tried to turn onto a campus road, contacted an officer on security detail. Officer noted the plate. Texts quoted that night are about retrieving the rifle.
- Sep 10, 2025 (time unknown)Patel "subject in custody" – then released
Hours after the shot, FBI director posted that "the subject" was apprehended. Walked back within about two hours. A separate campus arrestee who claimed he was the shooter was not.
- Sep 10, 2025, 8:40 AM MDTTrump announces Kirk's death
2:40 p.m. MDT, Truth Social. Kirk had been carried to an SUV at 12:23:55 and taken to Timpanogos Regional Hospital.
- ~ Sep 10, 2025, 6:30 AM MDTZinn detained after false confession
Minutes after the shot, George Zinn, 71, yelled he had shot Kirk and was cuffed on camera. Later said the shout was to hinder police. Not the gunman. Viral video burned the first hour.
- ~ Sep 10, 2025, 6:24 AM MDTFigure drops from north corner of Losee
~12:24 p.m. Run to the north corner, hang, drop. Palm prints and smudges at the edge. Converse print on the ground. Then woods north of campus.