Claim matrix

Rows are hypotheses. Columns are whether this file currently holds items cited for, against, or neither. Empty cells mean the archive is thin – not that the claim is true.

Claim	Cluster	Status	Cited for	Cited against
Professional hit / false flag / not a bullet	Alternate mechanism	Contested	none yet	ATF bullet-fragment comparison Autopsy, gunshot to the neck
Robinson was the lone rooftop shooter	Official case	Contested	Campus surveillance of alleged rooftop shooter Recovered Mauser-type .30-06 rifle DNA on rifle, towel, casings, rooftop screwdriver Roommate text thread and keyboard note Discord "it was me at UVU" message Utah charging / probable-cause statement FBI person-of-interest stills Keyboard note Gray Dodge Challenger ATF match of home casings to recovered rifle TEST SHOT casing and Dremel Rooftop screwdriver Twiggs April 2026 recorded interview ATF match of home casings to recovered rifle Father phone call: too much hate Gravel sniper pad No spent casings on the roof UVU dispatch: Alpha 34, shots fired Autopsy, gunshot to the neck	ATF bullet-fragment comparison
Bomb dogs were kept away	Alternate mechanism	Contested	none yet	Autopsy, gunshot to the neck
FBI revived comparative bullet-lead analysis	Official case	Contested	ATF bullet-fragment comparison	none yet
Death text: they are going to kill me	Motive	Contested	none yet	none yet
Pierre Falcone as mastermind	Foreign state	Contested	none yet	none yet
Frangible or exploding bullet	Alternate mechanism	Contested	ATF bullet-fragment comparison	Autopsy, gunshot to the neck Four rounds in the rifle
Fort Huachuca meeting the day before	TPUSA / insider	Contested	none yet	none yet
Kolvet: it was supposed to be you	TPUSA / insider	Contested	none yet	none yet
Exploding Røde microphone / shaped charge	Alternate mechanism	Contested	none yet	Autopsy, gunshot to the neck ATF bullet-fragment comparison
St. Michael necklace as explosive residue	Alternate mechanism	Contested	none yet	Autopsy, gunshot to the neck
Bill Ackman ran a June 2025 intervention that led to the killing	Foreign state	Contested	Kirk WhatsApp on leaving the pro-Israel cause	none yet
Egyptian military flights tracked Erika and were at Provo on 10 Sep	Foreign state	Contested	none yet	none yet
Cox's 'Discord messages' were not Discord	Fabricated digital evidence	Contradicted	none yet	Keyboard note Roommate text thread and keyboard note
Shot created a great risk of death to others	Official case	Contested	Four rounds in the rifle Utah charging / probable-cause statement	none yet
Kirk thought he was a time traveler and was marked as a child	Patsy / wrong shooter	Contested	none yet	none yet
Kirk was targeted for political expression	Motive	Contested	Roommate text thread and keyboard note Keyboard note Family dinner, dislike of Kirk Father phone call: too much hate	Engraved cartridge casings
Groyper / Nick Fuentes motive	Motive	Contested	none yet	Engraved cartridge casings
France / French Foreign Legion ran the hit	Foreign state	Contested	none yet	none yet
Israel / Mossad ordered the killing	Foreign state	Contested	Kirk WhatsApp on leaving the pro-Israel cause	none yet
Robinson is a patsy and did not fire the shot	Patsy / wrong shooter	Contested	ATF bullet-fragment comparison	Campus surveillance of alleged rooftop shooter Roommate text thread and keyboard note Discord "it was me at UVU" message DNA on rifle, towel, casings, rooftop screwdriver FBI person-of-interest stills Gray Dodge Challenger Keyboard note Autopsy, gunshot to the neck Gravel sniper pad
Kirk's security team was in on it	TPUSA / insider	Contested	none yet	Harpole says roof overwatch was promised and empty
TPUSA money and security failures explain the death	TPUSA / insider	Contested	none yet	none yet
Roommate texts were written by federal agents	Fabricated digital evidence	Contested	none yet	Roommate text thread and keyboard note
Transgender ideology was the motive	Motive	Contested	none yet	Engraved cartridge casings
WSJ 'trans / antifa slogans' casing bulletin	Motive	Contradicted	none yet	Engraved cartridge casings
Second gunman because of the holster	Professional hit / extra shooter	Inconclusive	Empty holster in the grass	Campus surveillance of alleged rooftop shooter Recovered Mauser-type .30-06 rifle
Zinn was an accomplice who helped the shooter flee	Broader plot	Contradicted	none yet	none yet